but getting worse
Here’s Why:
Predicting the impacts of climate change at the local level is challenging, but what is clear from historical data and trends is that climate change is increasing temperatures in all seasons of the year. We should prepare for more extreme heat in the coming years that poses a disproportionate threat to urban and disadvantaged communities.
but getting worse
Here’s Why:
Climate change is already causing more unpredictable and damaging weather patterns, with more intense and heavy rainstorms recorded throughout the Delaware River watershed. These trends will worsen if greenhouse gas emissions continue at current rates, posing significant risks to communities and the environment and underscoring the urgency to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and incorporate climate resiliency planning for our communities and infrastructure.
Is it just us, or does the weather feel a bit…unpredictable?
The Delaware Estuary is not the same as it was a few decades ago. You might have noticed hotter summers, wetter seasons, and an uptick in severe storms. These changes in our climate are altering our familiar weather patterns and presenting serious risks to our homes and communities. Unfortunately, these trends may worsen if greenhouse gas emissions (the release of gasses that trap heat) persist at current rates. This section will take a closer look at these climatic trends and what they mean for the future.
Extreme weather events, such as record-setting, scorching hot days, and heavy rainfall often accompanied by flooding, can significantly impact people’s daily lives and cause substantial damage. Scientists have been working to understand these extreme weather events to better prepare for the future. Patterns and trends are emerging by examining different factors, like frost, heat, dry periods, and the frequency of heavy rainfalls. These trends help predict the intensity of future weather events as communities prepare and adapt to live in our new climate. These changes will inevitably impact everyone – what can be grown in your gardens, how farmers plan for a successful harvest, and when you plan seasonal activities such as snowboarding and fishing.
A century of weather data for the Delaware Estuary and Basin reveals startling trends. Frost days (when temperatures fall below freezing ) have declined, particularly in the last 30 years. These frost days are crucial in controlling harmful organisms such as pathogens, invasive species, and pests (mosquitos and ticks). Moreover, average temperatures have increased in the past 30 years. Such weather events don’t just impact people, they disrupt seasonal cycles through phenological shifts. Phenological shifts refer to changes in the timing of biological events, such as flowering, migration, hibernation, and breeding, driven by shifts in climate patterns. Higher average temperatures, for example, mean an earlier start to spring, which can cause problems like migrating birds returning to the area when the food they rely on is unavailable. Rising temperatures also heat bodies of water, threatening native fish species such as American shad, triggering phenological shifts in the spawning season.
As the air heats up, it can hold more moisture, leading to more frequent and heavy rain events (rainfall exceeding 1.78 inches in a single day). Over the past century, these events have increased by 50%, posing significant risks to cities and low-lying areas that struggle to absorb excess water – making them more prone to flooding – while population and development are increasing.
In addition, historically disadvantaged communities are more vulnerable to these changes. Systemic injustices have exposed minority and low-income communities to the harshest impacts of extreme weather events. Health risks, rising energy costs associated with heatwaves, and the threat of losing homes and lives during intense storms or extreme drought (thus far more observed in other areas of the country), disproportionately affect these communities.
If greenhouse gas emissions from cars and other sources continue unchecked, these trends in extreme weather events are expected to become increasingly more common and intense. By the end of the century, the region could see an additional 40 percent rise in heavy rainfall events and more frequent tropical storms and hurricanes in the Delaware Estuary and Basin.
Although predicting these changes locally can be complex, everyone should prepare for heavier rainfall, hotter days, and fewer frost days in the coming years. Now, more than ever, we need to focus on building partnerships and community resilience in the face of our shifting climate.
Urban heat islands are highly developed areas that experience much higher surface temperatures than their suburban and rural counterparts.
Due to the high density of cars and buildings, heat islands get hotter than places with more trees and green space. This is why it’s so important to plant trees in urban areas to buffer the impacts of the urban heat island effect. Check out this example of a Heat Hub for New Jersey.
In 2019, the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) established the Advisory Committee on Climate Change to provide scientific information for identifying and prioritizing threats to the Basin’s water resources. It also makes environmental mitigation, adaptation, and resiliency recommendations. Get the DRBC’s partner studies and resources here.
New Jersey developed an Extreme Precipitation Projection Tool for planners, local governments, developers, and residents.
In July 2023, New Jersey implemented the Inland Flood Protection Rule that defines areas with the highest risk of flooding. It also ensures that builders use up-to-date precipitation data in planning construction projects.
How do extreme temperature and precipitation events connect with the strategies and goals outlined in the Delaware Estuary Program’s Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan (CCMP)? CCMP STRATEGY H2.2: Promote stewardship practices by local partners for the health and sustainability of forests for water quality. This Temperature and Precipitation indicator status report is based on research compiled in the 2022 Technical Report for the Delaware Estuary and Basin (2022 TREB).
Please refer to this document for more information. Published in December 2023 in Estuary News, the 2023 State of the Estuary Report is produced every five years.
